New energy boom to the "cold" thinking

An energy journal editor called and said that recently released a plan to build the world's largest solar power station, would like to hear my views. Ready built where? "I asked," Arizona, Spain, North Africa? "In fact, none of it is located in the south-east of Nuremberg, the three regions across the Bavarian countryside.

I said, this is certainly a mistake. My hometown on the border opposite the Czech  Republic, not far away from there. Until today, I still clearly remember the summer rainy every day we can only be spent in the house. Bavarian weather like in Seattle, United States, or China's Sichuan. There simply is not suitable for the construction of solar power plants, German has chosen to do the opposite. This peak output of 10 MW power station was put into use in June 2005.

Prompted all this happen, is the biggest promoter of the politics behind: money. New site renewable energy, the government subsidy is king, and consumers have to foot the bill.

Remove from hydro and geothermal power and other renewable energy without relying on government subsidies to compete with traditional energy. There are many reasons, one of which is the low capacity factor (ie ratio of the power plant is the largest power generation and installed capacity). Under normal circumstances, the capacity factor of nuclear power plants for more than 90% of the power plant capacity factor of between 65% to 70%; however, even in sunny Spain, the solar power plant capacity factor of less than 20%; installed in on dry land wind turbines, with a capacity factor of 25% to 30%, while installed in coastal waters can reach 40%. If you want to make use of solar or wind power,solar panel the full set of power lines laying in the corresponding resource abundant areas; same time, due to the instability of the solar and wind, we have to deal with a great variety of grid load.

Although these shortcomings known, he was the new energy of the fans and various media easily thrown aside. The worst thing is that the advocates did not realize that, even though the advantages of the new energy reassert promotion they also need time.

For example, in 2008, former U.S. Vice President Al Gore proposed a plan, within a decade, with new energy to replace all U.S. power plants using fossil fuels. Google also has its own plan, that is, in 2030, cut off all power plant; proposed the plan in 2008, and in 2011 renounced. Another more ambitious plans, from a 2009 article in Scientific American, author Mark Jacobson (Mark Jacobson) and the Mark De Luqi (Mark Delucchi) are Stanford University Professor of Civil Engineering and scholars of the transportation system of the University of California at Davis. The two proposed, in 2030, the world's total energy replaced by new energy.

From the point of view of history and technology, they greatly underestimate the many problems brought about by the new energy.

Development of new energy, thanks to government subsidies?

The German government in 2004, investors of solar power in the next 20 years, to 0.57 euros per kWh subsidy (ie, the feed-in tariff "). I really do not know what they want in the end is how - when using other energy electricity prices of 0.20 euros per kWh; while the United States in 2004, the average tariff is 7.6 cents, which is 0.06 euros per kWh. Conceivable that, under the stimulus of the subsidies, solar power station in Bavaria is just a start. By the end of 2011, the total installed capacity of solar power plants in Germany reached 25 megawatts, more than one-third of the global total. When an energy beginning to get huge subsidies, grid tie inverter everything will seem extremely smooth, but it will eventually have to face reality. In March this year, when the German parliament that their electricity bills in Europe ranked second, they vote to cut solar power subsidies, the highest rate of 29%.

Generous subsidies for new energy, it is not only in Germany, which is the norm around the world. Spain also had wind and solar power stations subsidies subsidy of large power stations in 2010, and only then cut in half. In December 2010, the United States, due to the high subsidies to wind turbine manufacturers, brought to the WTO proceedings. The energy industry in the United States, the highest government subsidies neither wind power nor solar, but biofuels; specifically for corn-based ethanol.

Data according to the U.S. General Accounting Office, 2011 U.S. ethanol manufacturing tax subsidies, spent a total of $ 6.1 billion of taxpayers. In addition, ethanol manufacturing also brought three recessive spending: first, soil erosion; Second, excess nitrates in the fertilizer over the river into the Gulf of Mexico, in the formation of "dead zones" along the coast; Third , as the world's largest grain-exporting countries, the United States 40% of the corn crop for ethanol production. The biggest waste is inefficient ethanol powered vehicles are used for the manufacture of ethanol fuel, most.

Perhaps you will say, government subsidies, the starting point is good; Indeed, subsidies to stimulate the development of new energy practice already. To encourage exploration, the government has decades of oil and gas industry tax cuts. The development of nuclear power is completely dependent on the huge R & D funding provided by the Government. From 1948 to 2007, subsidies for research and development of nuclear power accounted for almost 54% of the total expenditure of the U.S. federal research. In France, nuclear power has received the full funding of the State Power Corporation. These funds to support nuclear power in France can never be developed to a 75% share of today. But we must think about the economic subsidies to new energy, can play the effect of its supporters promised?

Do not boast Haikou supporters of these new energy carried away. They say, in just a few decades, these new energy sources will be able to completely replace fossil fuels, to create a reliable and green carbon-free energy system, and the price will not be higher than the cheapest thermal power inverter  system. In this way, we will be able to prevent the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide rose from 394ppm to 450ppm. According to meteorologists predict when the carbon dioxide concentration reached 450ppm, average global temperatures will rise 2 ℃. I certainly hope that their commitment can be fulfilled, but I am more willing to believe that a clear and accurate scientific analysis.